The "unconventional shocks"? or events are both external and internal. One of several external events cited appears to be a direct reference to the current and developing situation in Pakistan, where a nuclear-armed (WMD) state suddenly collapses (Strategic State Collapse) due to uncontrollable instability or a "Black Swan"? type of event. To my mind this invokes the entirely plausible overthrow of the Pakistani government by the Islamic terrorist movements which infest the country as well as the government and its institutions as clearly demonstrated by the very recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai, India. The inference here is that the collapse of Pakistan to jihadist control would deliver "unrestricted access"? to dozens of nuclear weapons to the terrorists at war with the United States. Another "unconventional shock"? is cited as "the most dangerous prospective contingencies in this regard might be collapse of a large capable state that results in a nuclear civil war."? Think Russia and the former-Soviet Union.

The internal "unconventional shock" cited is one that is clearly a "Black Swan"? event which envisions a "violent, strategic dislocation in the United States"? the result of which manifests itself in the "rapid dissolution of public order in all or significant parts of the United States."? Were state and local authorities to prove incapable of insuring the domestic tranquility, the United States armed forces would be "required to fill the gap."? In this most disturbing vignette the author also envisions the use of weapons of mass destruction , a total collapse of political and legal order, domestic insurgency, and all manner of the inevitably resultant human health emergencies


The folks that try to keep ahead of trouble and terror have their hands full don't they.